In a world where political divides seem to widen by the day, there's a rare consensus emerging among Americans about the state of global affairs. The belief is that the liberal world order, a system built on U.S. leadership and a set of shared principles, is no more. And not only is it gone, but it's also seen as a burden that America should shed. However, I strongly believe that this consensus is built on shaky ground and could lead us down a dangerous path.
Let's start with the notion that the liberal world order is dead. While it's true that this order has faced challenges and criticisms, it's far from extinct. The U.S.-led system has provided an unprecedented level of stability, security, and prosperity for the past eight decades. Every U.S. president, until Trump, has believed in and upheld this order, and for good reason.
One of the key benefits often overlooked is the prevention of great-power wars. In the 80 years since World War II, we've avoided the catastrophic conflicts that plagued previous eras. This is not just due to nuclear deterrence, as some might argue, but also to the presence of U.S. military forces and alliances worldwide. This deterrence has kept territorial aggression in check and maintained a relative peace that the world has never known before.
The critics might argue that this order has been a drain on American resources, but the facts paint a different picture. The U.S. economy has outperformed other wealthy nations, and its military power dwarfs that of any other country. The U.S. dollar's dominance in global transactions gives Washington significant leverage. So, the idea that America can't sustain its global leadership role is a misconception.
What's more concerning is the attitude that if the U.S.-led order is dying, it won't be missed. This is a dangerous mindset. The benefits of this order are vast: open sea lanes, curbing nuclear proliferation, fostering global prosperity, and promoting democracy. To dismiss these achievements is to ignore the progress the world has made under American leadership.
Now, let's talk about the risks of a world without a strong U.S. commitment. The cost of aggression would likely rise, and the risk of major conflicts would increase. We've seen this play out with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Without a strong U.S. military presence and security guarantees, ambitious states might take advantage, and the consequences could be dire.
The closure of key waterways, like the Strait of Hormuz, would have devastating economic impacts. A one percent reduction in U.S. GDP, which could result from such an event, would cost Americans over $300 billion annually. This is not a risk we can afford to take.
Furthermore, the threat of nuclear proliferation would loom larger. With questions about U.S. security commitments, countries like South Korea, Poland, and even Japan are considering developing their nuclear arsenals. This could lead to a dangerous arms race and undermine global security.
So, what's the way forward? I believe the next U.S. president should focus on reforming and updating the U.S.-led world order, not retreating from it. This means addressing legitimate concerns about burden-sharing within alliances and adapting to the challenges of the 21st century, like great-power competition and climate change.
It's also crucial to respect the rules, norms, and institutions that Trump has been destroying. While previous leaders may have bent these rules, no one has come close to Trump's level of lawlessness. A world where 'might makes right' is a recipe for injustice and renewed conflict.
In conclusion, the idea that the U.S.-led world order is dead and buried is a dangerous misconception. The benefits it has brought to the world are immense, and the risks of abandoning it are too great. Instead of giving up, America should focus on fixing and strengthening this order. As we move forward, we must remember the progress we've made and the potential disasters we can avoid with a strong and committed U.S. leadership.
